There were many actual performances in 2019, the last time we had a real cross country season, that almost exactly matched their PEQs. Here are just a few examples:

Louisa County’s #1 runner ran a 16:02 at the Pole Green (woods) XC classic on 9/7/19. That performances’ PEQ at Panorama Farms (new) where he will race in one week is 15:59. He actually ran 16:01. His Panorama Farms (new) to Fork Union PEQ where he will race the week after is 16:16. He actually runs a 16:14 there. His teammate, the #2 Louisa Co. runner ran a 16:59 at Pole Green woods Its PEQ at Fork Union is 17:11, he actually ran 17:08.

One of the most impressive PEQ to actual performances was turned in by one Daniel O’Brien from Virginia Episcopal School, winning the MileStat.com XC Invitational on 10/19/19 at Pole Green (open) in 14:57. According to his father and coach, Pete O’Brien, this was Daniels’ best race of the regular season, run on an almost entirely flat course in Mechanicsville but apparently almost equal in competitiveness to his seventh place finish on the very hilly and challenging Balboa Park course at the Foot Locker high school championships in San Diego on 12/14/19. His Pole Green (open) to Balboa Park PEQ was 15:23. His actual time at Balboa Park was 15:24.

These nearly identical PEQ to actual performances just cited are even more impressive when you consider that none of the five courses on which they were run were exactly 5000 meters and varied in length by as much as 89 meters (4927m to 5016m.). All were precision measured and difficulty rated by YT+ and times normalized to exactly 5000m to provide this level of accuracy.

So the PEQ numbers so far, while impressive, show only a few individual performances. What would a larger population sample look like?

Seven of the top twenty one boys at the 11/7/19 VHSL 5A Region Championships at Panorama Farms (old) ran an average of 4.7 seconds from their PEQ’s between Panorama Farms (old) and Great Meadow (site of their VA state championship) on 11/16/19. Seven of the top eight boys from the 10/24/19 Shore conference championships at Ocean Co. NJ came within an average of 6.2 seconds from their PEQ’s between Ocean Co. and Holmdel Park three weeks later on 11/16/19. Five of the nine NJ girls who finished in the top 24 at the NE Foot
Locker regional race at Van Cortlandt Park on 11/30/19 came within an average of 5.8 sec from their Holmdel Park to Van Cortlandt Park PEQ’s. And five of the six NJ boys who finished in the top 22 at the same FL regional meet at VCP came within a 5.2 sec average from their Holmdel to VCP PEQ’s.

Some of the most impressive PEQ numbers in the YT+ system over the last several years are from performances by the top high school cross country athletes around the country competing for national bragging rights in San Diego at Balboa Park . The higher the performance level, the closer the PEQ to actual performances appear. In the 2019 championship for example, nine of the top fourteen boy’s finishers from YT+ rated regional courses came within a 4 second average of their regional to national PEQs. And thirteen of the top nineteen girls in the championship race were within a 6.4 sec average from their regional to national PEQs. Similar levels of accuracy were produced in the several preceding years on the same courses.