YT+ PEQ Performance Report

2021 to 2024

The four years of performance data tabulated below were derived exclusively from regional qualifying to national championship races using YT+ Performance Equivalences (PEQs). Each qualifiers' time at regions, measured on four very different courses, was entered into the PEQ calculator. The result projects what those qualifiers would run at the Foot Locker and Eastbay National High School XC championships in San Diego at Balboa Park if they ran there with equal competitiveness in similar conditions.

If PEQs are accurate, the actual performances will closely, if not exactly, match the projections. Despite the disparities in difficulty of the courses, they also varied in length by as much as 117 meters, making the results below even more impressive. Survey level course measurement accuracy and patented course difficulty ratings were necessary for YT+ to calculate these results. There are thousands of similar results in hundreds of other meets over the same period.

Foot Locker National HS Cross Country Championships – 2024

Dec 14, 2024

Girls

All team places projected correctly.
Individual winner projected correctly.
Winner’s time projected within 2 seconds.
4 of top 5 finishers projected top 5.
6 of top 8 within 5.6 seconds of projected time.
11 runners finished within 1 place of their YT+ projection.

Boys

Winning team projected correctly.
Winner projected to finish top 2.
6 runners within 2 seconds of projection.
9 within 2 places.
13 within 3 places.
14 projected to finish in top 20 actually finished top 20.
5 projected top-10 actually finished top-10.

Foot Locker National HS Cross Country Championships – 2023

Dec 9, 2023

Girls

13 girls averaged 1.6 places from projection.
5 matched projected time exactly.
All team places projected correctly.
Winning team score projected within 1 point.
Winner was #1 pre-race ranked runner.
South girls’ results (1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 12, 13, 15) closely matched their pre-race YT+ rankings (1, 3, 10, 21, 13, 8, 4, 9).

Boys

NE team score of 38 projected within 1 point.
11 boys averaged 1.36 places from projection.
6 projected top-11 finished top-11.
Top two projected boys finished 1st and 2nd.
Winner held #1 YT+ ranking since Oct 14.

Foot Locker National HS Cross Country Championships – 2022

Dec 10, 2022

Girls

5 girls within 3.8 seconds of projection.
10 girls within 5.7 seconds.
6 of top 8 projected top-8.
Top 8 averaged 1.6 places from projection.
13 averaged 1.5 places from projection.
18 averaged 2.3 places from projection.

Boys

Winning team score projected within 6 points.
5 of top 8 within 2 places.
11 within 3 places.
8 of top 10 projected top-10.
8 boys within 1.8 seconds of projection.
13 within 2.9 seconds.
20 runners (51%) within 4.8 seconds.

Eastbay Championship – 2021

Dec 11, 2021

Girls

7 of top 13 within 4.7 seconds of projection.
5 of top 7 projected top-7.
5 of top 9 within 2.2 seconds.
14 within 3 places of projection.
Winner within 1 second of projection.
Experts missed winner’s time by an average of 18 seconds.
Projected 17:14 → actual 17:15.

Boys

All team places projected correctly.
Top 7 averaged 7.7 seconds off projection.
13 of top 16 averaged 6.3 seconds off projection.
Winner within 6 seconds of projection.
6 of top 10 projected top-10.
Only 2 of 6 experts predicted the winner to finish top-2 — YT+ projected him 2nd.

All results above are derived from YT+ PEQ projections based on accurately measured courses and patented difficulty ratings.